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2005 Portuguese legislative election

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2005 Portuguese legislative election
← 2002 20 February 2005 2009 →
230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly
116 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered8,944,508 Increase0.5%
Turnout5,747,834 (64.3%)
Increase2.8 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
José Socrates cropped from Dmitry Medvedev in Portugal 20 November 2010-2 (cropped).png
Pedro Santana Lopes 01.jpg
Jerónimo de Sousa 2007b (cropped).jpg
Leader José Sócrates Pedro Santana Lopes Jerónimo de Sousa
Party PS PSD PCP
Alliance CDU
Leader since 26 September 2004 1 July 2004 27 November 2004
Leader's seat Castelo Branco Lisbon Lisbon
Last election 96 seats, 37.8% 105 seats, 40.2% 12 seats, 6.9%
Seats won 121 75 14
Seat change Increase 25 Decrease 30 Increase 2
Popular vote 2,588,312 1,653,425 433,369
Percentage 45.0% 28.8% 7.5%
Swing Increase 7.2 pp Decrease 11.4 pp Increase 0.6 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
P Portas 2009 (cropped).png
Deputados do Bloco de Esquerda (16) (4026598621).jpg
Leader Paulo Portas Francisco Louçã
Party CDS–PP BE
Leader since 22 March 1998 24 March 1999
Leader's seat Aveiro Lisbon
Last election 14 seats, 8.7% 3 seats, 2.7%
Seats won 12 8
Seat change Decrease 2 Increase 5
Popular vote 416,415 364,971
Percentage 7.2% 6.4%
Swing Decrease 1.5 pp Increase 3.6 pp
Prime Minister before election

Pedro Santana Lopes
PSD

Prime Minister after election

José Sócrates
PS

The 2005 Portuguese legislative election took place on 20 February. The election renewed all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.

These elections were called after the decision of President Jorge Sampaio on 30 November 2004 to dissolve the Parliament as an answer to the political instability caused by the government led by Pedro Santana Lopes (PSD) in coalition with the PP. Santana Lopes had become Prime Minister in July 2004, after José Manuel Durão Barroso left the country in order to become President of the European Commission in a decision that divided the country, because many Portuguese were expecting that the Socialist President Jorge Sampaio would dissolve the Parliament and call a legislative election. However, after five unstable months, President Sampaio decided to dissolve Parliament and call fresh elections. The Prime Minister nevertheless announced the resignation of the government on 11 December, in an action with no practical effects whatsoever.

The campaign started officially on 6 February and the major topics were the problematic state of the country's finances, unemployment, abortion and even José Sócrates's alleged homosexuality.[1][2]

Headed by Sócrates, the centre-left Socialist Party (PS) won the election with a landslide victory, winning in 19 of the 22 electoral constituencies, including in districts such as Viseu and Bragança that historically voted for the right. The Socialist Party conquered its first absolute majority, receiving 45 percent of the electorate vote and 52 percent of the seats in the Parliament, making this the Socialists' largest ever victory in terms of vote percentage and seat count as of 2022. The centre-right parties, mainly the Social Democrats, were punished for their performance in government, and lost more than 11 percentage points they had garnered in the previous election. On the left, the Left Bloc achieved its best result ever and made the biggest climb, gaining 5 MPs, while the CDU (Communists and the Greens) gained 2 MPs and reversed their downward trend of the last elections.

Voter turnout was the highest since 1995, as 64.3 percent of the electorate cast a ballot.

Background

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Fall of the government

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See also: 2002 Portuguese legislative election § Fall of the government

Deep disagreements and disputes within the Social Democratic Party began to derail the government led by Pedro Santana Lopes.[3] One of those disputes, the resignation of Youth and Sports Minister, Henrique Chaves, which was a close ally of Santana, precipitated the fall of the government, as Chaves accused Santana of not being "loyal and truthful".[4] Following this, President Jorge Sampaio had "enough" of crisis and accused the government of "contradictions and lack of coordination that contributed to its discredit".[5] Therefore, Sampaio used his power of dissolution of Parliament and called a snap election, the only time till date such power was used in Portuguese democracy.[6][7] A new election was called, by the President, for February 2005.[8]

Leadership changes and challenges

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PSD 2004 leadership election

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Following the resignation of José Manuel Durão Barroso as Prime Minister and PSD leader to become President of the European Commission, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) initiated the process to elect a new leader.[9] Pedro Santana Lopes, by then Mayor of Lisbon, was the sole candidate for the leadership[10] and his name was overwhelmingly confirmed in a National Party Council meeting on 1 July 2004.[11] The results were the following:

Ballot: 1 July 2004
Candidate Votes %
Pedro Santana Lopes 98 97.0
Against 3 3.0
Turnout 101
Source: Results

Two weeks later, on 17 July 2004, Santana Lopes was sworn in as Prime Minister.[12]

PS 2004 leadership election

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Main article: 2004 Portuguese Socialist Party leadership election

On early July 2004, PS leader Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues resigned from the leadership against President Jorge Sampaio decision to nominate Pedro Santana Lopes as Prime Minister, following the resignation of Durão Barroso, rather than calling a snap legislative election.[13] New elections to select a new leader were called for 25 and 26 September 2004. Former environment minister José Sócrates, Manuel Alegre and the son of former President Mário Soares, João Soares, contested the leadership ballot.[14] José Sócrates was elected by a landslide[15] and the results were the following:

Ballot: 25 and 26 September 2004
Candidate Votes %
José Sócrates 18,432 78.6
Manuel Alegre 3,903 16.7
João Soares 927 4.0
Blank/Invalid ballots 175 0.7
Turnout 23,437
Source: Results

PCP 2004 leadership election

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In the fall of 2004, PCP leader Carlos Carvalhas decided to step down from the party's leadership after 12 years in the post.[16] Jerónimo de Sousa was selected as candidate for the leadership and was elected in the party's congress during the weekend of 27 and 28 November 2004.[17] The results were the following:

Ballot: 27 November 2004
Candidate Votes %
Jerónimo de Sousa 164 93.7
Against 1 0.6
Abstention 10 5.7
Turnout 175
Source: Results

Electoral system

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Official logo of the election.

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[18]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.[19] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[20]

For these elections, and compared with the 2002 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following:[21]

District Number of MPs Map
Lisbon 48
Porto 38
Braga 18
Setúbal 17
Aveiro 15
Leiria, Santarém and Coimbra 10
Viseu 9
Faro 8
Madeira(+1) and Viana do Castelo 6
Azores, Castelo Branco and Vila Real 5
Bragança and Guarda 4
Beja and Évora 3
Portalegre(–1), Europe and Outside Europe 2

Parties

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The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 9th legislature (2002–2005) and that also partook in the election:

Name Ideology Political position Leader 2002 result
% Seats
PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata 		Conservatism
Classical liberalism 		Centre-right Pedro Santana Lopes 40.2%
105 / 230
PS Socialist Party
Partido Socialista 		Social democracy
Third Way 		Centre-left to Centre José Sócrates 37.8%
96 / 230
CDS-PP CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular 		Christian democracy
Conservatism 		Centre-right
to right-wing 		Paulo Portas 8.7%
14 / 230
PCP Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista Português 		Communism
Marxism–Leninism 		Far-left Jerónimo de Sousa
6.9%
[a]
10 / 230
PEV Ecologist Party "The Greens"
Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes" 		Eco-socialism
Green politics 		Left-wing Heloísa Apolónia
2 / 230
BE Left Bloc
Bloco de Esquerda 		Democratic socialism
Anti-capitalism 		Left-wing Francisco Louçã 2.7%
3 / 230

Campaign period

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Party slogans

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Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Refs
PSD « Por amor a Portugal. » "For love of Portugal" [22]
PS « Voltar a acreditar em Portugal » "Believing in Portugal again" [23]
CDS–PP « O voto útil para Portugal » "The useful vote for Portugal" [24]
CDU « Agora é consigo » "Now it's up to you" [25]
BE « Faz toda a diferença » "It makes all the difference" [26]

Candidates' debates

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2005 Portuguese legislative election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present    A  Absent invitee  N  Non-invitee 
PSD
Santana 		PS
Sócrates 		CDS–PP
Portas 		CDU
Jerónimo 		BE
Louçã 		Refs
18 Jan SIC Notícias N N N P P [27]
20 Jan SIC Notícias N N P N P [28]
25 Jan SIC Notícias N N P P N [27]
3 Feb RTP2,
SIC,
Antena 1,
TSF 		Maria Flor Pedroso
Rodrigo Guedes de Carvalho
José Gomes Ferreira
Ricardo Costa 		P P N N N [29]
15 Feb RTP1 Judite de Sousa
José Alberto Carvalho 		P P P P P [30]
Candidate viewed as "most convincing" in each debate
Date Organisers Polling firm/Link
PSD PS CDS–PP CDU BE Notes
3 Feb RTP2, SIC, Antena 1, TSF Aximage 20.2 50.4 — — — 29.6% Tie

Opinion polling

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Main article: Opinion polling for the 2005 Portuguese legislative election

Voter turnout

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The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day including voters from Overseas.

Turnout Time
12:00 16:00 19:00
2002 2005 ± 2002 2005 ± 2002 2005 ±
Total 18.00% 21.93% Increase 3.93 pp 45.88% 50.94% Increase 5.06 pp 61.48% 64.26% Increase 2.78 pp
Sources[31][32][33][34]

National summary of votes and seats

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Summary of the 20 February 2005 Assembly of the Republic elections results
Parties Votes % ± MPs MPs %/
votes %
2002 2005 ± % ±
Socialist 2,588,312 45.03 Increase7.2 96 121 Increase25 52.61 Increase10.9 1.17
Social Democratic[b] 1,653,425 28.77 Decrease11.4 105 75 Decrease30 32.61 Decrease13.0 1.13
Unitary Democratic Coalition[c] 433,369 7.54 Increase0.6 12 14 Increase2 6.09 Increase0.9 0.81
People's 416,415 7.25 Decrease1.5 14 12 Decrease2 5.22 Decrease0.9 0.72
Left Bloc 364,971 6.35 Increase3.6 3 8 Increase5 3.48 Increase2.2 0.55
Portuguese Workers' Communist 48,186 0.84 Increase0.2 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
New Democracy 40,358 0.70 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
Humanist 17,056 0.30 Increase0.1 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
National Renovator 9,374 0.16 Increase0.1 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
Workers Party of Socialist Unity 5,535 0.10 Increase0.0 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
Democratic Party of the Atlantic 1,618 0.03 — — 0 — 0.00 — 0.0
Total valid 5,578,782 97.06 Decrease1.0 230 230 Steady0 100.00 Steady0.0 —
Blank ballots 103,537 1.80 Increase0.8
Invalid ballots 65,515 1.14 Increase0.2
Total 5,747,834 100.00
Registered voters/turnout 8,944,508 64.26 Increase2.8
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
Vote share
PS
 
 45.03%
PSD
 
 28.77%
CDU
 
 7.54%
CDS-PP
 
 7.24%
BE
 
 6.35%
PCTP/MRPP
 
 0.84%
PND
 
 0.70%
Others
 
 0.59%
Blank/Invalid
 
 2.94%
Parliamentary seats
PS
 
 52.61%
PSD
 
 32.61%
CDU
 
 6.09%
CDS-PP
 
 5.22%
BE
 
 3.48%

Distribution by constituency

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Results of the 2005 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic by constituency
Constituency % S % S % S % S % S Total
S
PS PSD CDU CDS-PP BE
Azores 53.1 3 34.4 2 1.7 - 4.0 - 2.9 - 5
Aveiro 41.1 8 35.7 6 3.5 - 9.8 1 5.1 - 15
Beja 51.0 2 12.3 - 24.1 1 2.9 - 4.7 - 3
Braga 45.4 9 32.9 7 4.8 1 7.8 1 4.6 - 18
Bragança 42.1 2 39.0 2 2.0 - 9.7 - 2.5 - 4
Castelo Branco 56.0 4 26.7 1 3.8 - 5.3 - 3.7 - 5
Coimbra 45.4 6 31.9 4 5.5 - 5.5 - 6.3 - 10
Évora 49.7 2 16.7 - 20.9 1 3.7 - 4.6 - 3
Faro 49.3 6 24.6 2 6.9 - 5.8 - 7.7 - 8
Guarda 46.8 2 34.7 2 2.9 - 7.0 - 3.4 - 4
Leiria 35.6 4 39.8 5 4.6 - 8.9 1 5.5 - 10
Lisbon 44.1 23 23.7 12 9.8 5 8.2 4 8.8 4 48
Madeira 35.0 3 45.2 3 3.6 - 6.6 - 3.8 - 6
Portalegre 54.9 2 20.2 - 12.1 - 4.2 - 4.6 - 2
Porto 48.5 20 27.8 12 5.4 2 6.9 2 6.7 2 38
Santarém 46.1 6 26.4 3 8.6 1 6.9 - 6.5 - 10
Setúbal 43.6 8 16.1 3 20.0 3 5.1 1 10.3 2 17
Viana do Castelo 42.0 3 33.5 2 3.8 - 11.4 1 4.5 - 6
Vila Real 43.8 3 40.2 2 2.6 - 6.8 - 2.4 - 5
Viseu 40.4 4 40.2 4 2.2 - 8.6 1 3.3 - 9
Europe 54.3 1 27.2 1 4.2 - 3.4 - 2.3 - 2
Outside Europe 26.3 - 57.7 2 1.0 - 3.5 - 0.7 - 2
Total 45.0 121 28.8 75 7.5 14 7.2 12 6.4 8 230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Maps

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Graphics

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  • Seats won by party.
    Seats won by party.
  • Gains and losses by party.
    Gains and losses by party.
  • Share of vote by party.
    Share of vote by party.

Further reading

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  • Freire, André; Marina Costa Lobo (May 2006). "The Portuguese 2005 legislative election: Return to the left". West European Politics. 29 (3): 581–588. doi:10.1080/01402380600620742. S2CID 154260314.

Notes

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  1. ^ The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 2002 election in a coalition called Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) and won a combined 6.9% of the vote and elected 12 MPs to parliament.
  2. ^ From the Social Democratic electoral lists were elected two MPs from the People's Monarchist Party and other two MPs from Earth Party.
  3. ^ Portuguese Communist Party (12 MPs) and "The Greens" (2 MPs).

References

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  1. ^ Santos Costa, Filipe (2 February 2005). "Santana nega ter feito insinuações" [Santana denies having made insinuations]. Diário de Notícias (in Portuguese). Retrieved 8 June 2016.
  2. ^ Paixão, Paulo (23 September 2009). "Temas que marcaram a campanha das legislativas de 2005" [Themes that marked the 2005 election campaign]. Expresso (in Portuguese). Retrieved 8 June 2016.
  3. ^ "As "trapalhadas" de Santana em 2004 (que Rio apoiou e Marcelo arrasou) ", Observador, 21 December 2017. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
  4. ^ "Henrique Chaves demite-se do Governo por falta de «lealdade e de verdade» de Santana", Jornal de Negócios, 28 November 2004. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
  5. ^ "Jorge Sampaio anuncia a dissolução do Parlamento ", RTP, 8 September 2015. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
  6. ^ "Jorge Sampaio vai dissolver Assembleia da República ", Público, 30 November 2004. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
  7. ^ "A bomba atómica de Sampaio", Correio da Manhã, 10 September 2021. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
  8. ^ "Jorge Sampaio assinou hoje decreto de dissolução do Parlamento ", Público, 22 December 2004. Retrieved 23 October 2022.
  9. ^ "Durão Barroso demite-se oficialmente", Jornal de Notícias, 5 July 2004. Retrieved 25 March 2023.
  10. ^ "Santana Lopes considera legítima eleição pelo Conselho Nacional do PSD ", Público, 30 June 2004. Retrieved 25 March 2023.
  11. ^ "Santana Lopes indigitado pelo PSD para primeiro-ministro", Público, 11 July 2004. Retrieved 25 March 2023.
  12. ^ "Um Governo de amigos, políticos e estreantes ", Público, 17 July 2004. Retrieved 25 March 2023.
  13. ^ "Ferro Rodrigues demite-se da liderança do PS ", Público, 9 July 2004. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
  14. ^ "DEBATER AS IDEIAS ESCOLHER OS PROTAGONISTAS", Acção Socialista, 29 July 2004. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
  15. ^ "Sócrates eleito Secretário Geral do PS", RTP, 26 September 2004. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
  16. ^ "Carlos Carvalhas abandona liderança do PCP", Público, 5 October 2004. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
  17. ^ "PCP: Jerónimo de Sousa eleito secretário-geral", Público, 28 November 2004. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
  18. ^ "Constitution of the Portuguese Republic" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-03. Retrieved 2019-12-29.
  19. ^ "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 2015-10-21.
  20. ^ Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
  21. ^ "Mapa Oficial n.º 5-A/2004" (PDF). CNE - Comissão Nacional de Eleições - DR I Série-A, nº 301, 27 de Dezembro de 2004. Retrieved 2 December 2020.
  22. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2005 – PSD". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  23. ^ "PS recusa proposta de debate entre José Sócrates e Santana Lopes". TVI (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  24. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2005 – CDS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  25. ^ "Documents". PCP (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  26. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2005 – BE". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  27. ^ a b "Televisões apostam nos debates políticos". Correio da Manhã (in Portuguese). 18 January 2005. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  28. ^ "Portas e Louçã travaram debate aceso a propósito do aborto e da banca". Público (in Portuguese). 21 January 2005. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  29. ^ "Debate inovador ao estilo americano". Diário de Notícias (in Portuguese). 3 February 2005. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  30. ^ "DEBATE: LEGISLATIVAS 2005". RTP1 (in Portuguese). 2005. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  31. ^ "21,93 por cento dos eleitores votaram até ao meio-dia". RTP (in Portuguese). 20 February 2005. Retrieved 8 June 2023.
  32. ^ "Votaram 18 por cento dos eleitores até ao meio-dia". Público (in Portuguese). 17 March 2002. Retrieved 8 June 2023.
  33. ^ "00, mais de metade dos eleitores já tinha votado". RTP (in Portuguese). 20 February 2005. Retrieved 8 June 2023.
  34. ^ "Afluência às urnas ultrapassa 45 por cento às 16h00". Público (in Portuguese). 17 March 2002. Retrieved 8 June 2023.
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See also

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